a web based decision support application to determine the average outcome (good or bad) of a decision based on the range of possible outcomes selected. It plots a curve displaying the range of outcomes and their likelihood of occurring and highlights the decision result.
Adjust each value to reflect the Pessimistic, Middle and Optimistic outcomes for this decision.
Pessimistic outcome is
Adjust to the average value of the worst 20% of possible outcomes for this decision.
Middle outcome is
Adjust to the value of the middle outcome i.e. 50% better, 50% worse (Median).
Optimistic outcome is
Adjust to the average value of the best 20% of possible outcomes for this decision.
The Average Outcome is .
% of outcomes for this decision will be above the average.
Select and drag the sliders or input a value to reflect Pessimistic, Middle and Optimistic outcomes for your decision. The range of values are from -100 (really bad) to 100 (really good). The Pessimistic value cannot be greater than the Middle value and the Optimistic value cannot be less than the Middle value. The Middle value can be anywhere between -100 and 100.
Decision Decide calculates the outcomes based on the selected Pessimistic, Middle and Optimistic values. The likelihood (probability) of an outcome being greater or less than a value is represented by the Likelihood % versus Outcome plot.
The Average Outcome is the average decision result i.e. if the Average Outcome is 50 then if you repeat the decision enough times the average will be 50.
Decision Decide applies a normal distribution to the selected values to determine outcomes. This is a generic approach and is indicative only.
This application is developed using HTML5. Some functionality may not be available in all devices. If your browser does not display a slider you can simply type in your value.
From the ☰ top left you can access ? help, and the developer web site.